From the US National Weather Service
Another hot one out there tomorrow! There is also a conditional threat for isolated severe thunderstorms, and by “conditional” we mean there have to actually be thunderstorms first.
Warm air aloft (AKA the cap) will work hard to keep any thunderstorms from developing. Remember, thunderstorm updrafts need to be warmer than the surrounding air in order to keep rising and developing. However, if a storm or two manages to overcome the cap and strengthen, it will do so in an environment perfect for downbursts/microbursts. Downbursts happen when a thunderstorm’s core rapidly collapses, causing localized severe wind at the surface. Any stronger storm tomorrow is likely to produce a downburst.
So, generally a low chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, but if we do see a storm or two develop around the area, there is a high likelihood of locally damaging wind. If you see a storm with lightning developing on the horizon, it’s time to head indoors.
Comments